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EURUSD Daily Forecast: May 03

Living in East Java, Indonesia and holding International Relations degree, Setyo Wibowo began his forex trading career by joining Fortune Channel Investment in 2000 as a market analyst, while learning to trade forex independently on his own. Driven by his desire to share his trading experiences and ideas, Setyo joined the FX Instructor team in 2008. Setyo Wibowo is now living in Mojokerto, East Java, Indonesia.

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EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD slipped above the range area yesterday as you can see on my hourly chart below, topped at 1.4901 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.4793. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The major scenario remains bullish but still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction.

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The news of Osama Bin Laden’s death roiled markets overnight, but the short term reaction to this news may fade quickly as market focus shifts to important economic data and central bank meetings later this week. Canada goes to the polls today and the RBA is on tap tonight.

The dramatic news of the killing of Osama Bin Laden by US special forces in Pakistan send shockwaves through the market overnight – but those shockwaves are fading very quickly as we all have to wonder whether there are any important implications from this development for the financial markets in the here and now. Longer term, the implications may become more important, particularly for relations between the US and Pakistan after it became clear that Bin Laden was living in a large compound not particularly far from Pakistan’s capital rather than holed up in tribal areas along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border as was previously assumed. Could this trigger more tension between the US and Pakistan and what does it mean for the US exit strategy from Afghanistan? It is clear that Mr.

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Hello. Bin Laden’s death is today’s big news, therefore I’m sharing some interesting readings on the topic

Osama bin Laden’s Second Death (Market Oracle)

Osama bin Laden’s death will haunt Pakistan (Guardian)

Bin Laden Buried at Sea Within 24 Hours of Death: Why? (Time)

Killing Bin Laden — Here’s How The US Did It (Business Insider)

Bin Laden Is Dead … But Why Didn’t We Kill Him 10 Year Ago? (Washington’s Blog)

Bin Laden Killed, Buried at Sea; Text of President’s Speech; Celebration Images; Boost to the Stock Market?

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It’s not a matter of “top picking” as I am not in the least interested in getting short.

I’m certainly not looking for a near-term fade either since the short-term time frame that I could consider are still in roaring mark up trends.

With solid green GRaB candles on the daily and a “twelve to two o’clock” 34EMA Wave, there is bullish sentiment, bullish momentum, and – you guessed it! – a bullish trend on the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily chart with a Channel Up alert courtesy of

I think that the price action on April 18 caused many traders to take COUNTER-TREND entries short on longer-term time frames because of the depth of the pullback. In reality the move lower was a swing BUY as prices found buying support within the 34EMA Wave while simultaneously testing the uptrend line support of the Channel Up.

By the way, I am NOT AGAINST counter-trend entries, however I only take them on short-term time frames which for me are the five, 15, and 30-minute.

The reason then for why I’d like to see exhaustion between the 1.4700 major psychological level and the 1.4720 minor psychological level is so that I can see the EUR/USD correct lower into support and BUY INTO IT.

I don’t see 74.00 holding as support for very long despite many traders feeling that a low may be put in.

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Sometimes I wonder if I’m living in the clouds. All of my recent reports on the Canadian dollar were twinged with pessimism, and I argued that it would only be a matter of time before reality caught up with theory. While the continued surge in commodities prices has confounded everyone’s expectations, other economic trends continue to work against Canada. In other words, I think that there is still a strong argument to be made for shorting the loonie.

To be sure, the rally in commodities prices has been incredible- nearly 50% in less than a year! Oil prices are surging, gold prices just touched a record high, and a string of natural disasters have driven prices for agricultural staples to stratospheric levels. Given the perception of the Canadian dollar as a commodity currency, then, it’s no wonder that rising commodity prices have translated into a stronger currency.

As I’ve argued previously, rising commodities prices are basically an irrelevant – or even distracting – factor when it comes to analyzing the loonie.

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Today’s links:

The Biggest Losers From Today’s FOMC Conference: Robots (Zero Hedge)

97 Top Forex Mistakes (Winners Edge Trading)

20 Questions For Ben Bernanke (Zero Hedge)

The Mess in Europe (Big Picture)

Pimco’s Observations As The US “Reaches The Keynesian Endpoint” — The QE2 Ponzi Scheme Is “Nothing But A Profit Illusion” (Zero Hedge)

Shanky’s Daily Stuff (Shanky’s Tech Blog)

Wednesday – QE3 or not QE3? That is the Question (Phil’s Stock World)

UK is Bigger Fiscal Mess than Spain or Portugal; Fiat Currencies Don’t Float (Mish’s Global Economic Analysis)

Ben Bernanke defends Fed actions and downplays concerns about inflation at first news conference (LA Times)

Ben Bernanke Press Conference (Business Insider)

The scam behind the rise in oil, food prices (Zero Hedge)

Titanic’s Unknown Child Given New, Final Identity (Yahoo News)

How Dangerous Is Finland to the Euro?

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