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Copper is up from its multi-month low at the 299.40, but the gains are seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Aug 1st high at 454.00), and with eventual new lows below 299.40 after (within wave 5, see daily chart below).  Note that copper has gotten a lot of attention recently due to its relationship with economic activity in China (and recent concerns about a slowdown).  Also, another downleg in copper fits the view of another potential selloff in “risk” markets, and upleg in the $ (see earlier sent email).  Currently, the market is down from the Oct 17th high at 346.35 (38% retracement of wave 3), potentially completing its multi-week correction, and suggesting new lows ahead.  So for now want to be short copper and would sell here (cur at 320.65).  But there is risk that new lows below 299.40 may be limited (see longer term below), so will use an aggressive stop on a close above the bearish trendline from early Sept (currently at 342.50/343.50).  Note too that even a break above there would not abort the view of new lows, but suggest a more extended period of consolidating first, and would be looking to resell higher if taken out.  Nearby support is seen at 316.50/317.50. Full article…

EUR/USD: The market has finally taken out the key October lows at 1.3145 to confirm a lower top by 1.3550 and open the next downside extension towards the 2011 lows from January at 1.2870. Daily studies are however looking a little stretched and at this point we could see some corrective action before the market resumes its downward trajectory. Look for any rallies to be well capped in the 1.3300 area from where the next lower top will be sought out.

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The markets rebounded yesterday from early losses after the European session closed yet still closed lower as a reminder of the risk in the marketplace.  As European nations scramble to get their budgets under control, there is a essentially a “race against time” taking place as credit downgrades are looming and bond vigilantes are selling causing rates to rise.  The longer it takes to restore market confidence , the worse it is going to become.

But Germany continues to balk at the idea of Euro bonds or any solution that requires more of them.  Yet they continue to thrive despite the overall economic malaise Europe is facing, as evidenced by this morning’s better than expected PMI figures, with manufacturing coming in at 48.1 vs. an expected 47.5 and services coming in at 52.7 vs.

Full article…

CEE markets were generally disappointed after the ECB did not announce any sizeable target for buying eurozone bonds. Currencies weakened and yields rose accross the region and as usual, the forint was the victim of this again. The EUR/HUF pair dropped from 300/€ to 308/€ by this morning and yields rose about 20-25bps accross the curve, which means that the long-end got close to 9.00%.

Third quarter growth figures were released in the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Q/Q data was strong for Hungary at 0.5%, while it was -0.1% Q/Q for the Czech Republic. In terms of the Y/Y change, Hungary remained unchanged from the preliminary fact at 1.4%, while the Czech figure was revised lower to 1.2% Y/Y from 1.5% Y/Y. There were also foreign trade data releases in Hungary and Slovakia.

In case of the former, the data was in line with expectations at a monthly surplus of €497m, while it exceeded expectations by large with €570m surplus in Slovakia due to double digit rise of export and a broadly unchanged import. Full article…

A while ago I posted a link to a video that Bill Poulos created which revealed how his trade alert software was able to detect (and profit from) 5 day trends for the major currency pairs. Well he has recently updated this video and demonstrated how his Forex Profit Accelerator software has performed since then.
 
As you may know, the markets have been very difficult to trade in recent months, but this trade alert software seems to have performed very well trading the end of day charts, as you can see in this new video.
 
The overall profits were $32,000, and you can see how he did this by clicking here and watching the free video.

Trading the News: Canada GDP

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 11/30/2011 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD

Expected: 3.0%

Previous: -0.4%

2.0% to 2.5%

Why Is This Event Important:

Economic activity in Canada is expected to expand at an annual pace of 3.0% in the third-quarter, and the rebound in GDP should spark a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as the development instills an improved outlook for the region. As the recovery regains its footing, the Bank of Canada looks poised to maintain its current policy, and the central bank may carry its wait-and-see approach into the following year as Governor Mark Carney sees the economy operating below full-capacity until the end of 2013.

Full article…