Oil Daily Outlook July 14
Oil Prices – July 2011
On Wednesday, July 13th oil price (WTI) rose very moderately by 0.66% to $98.05/b; during July WTI inclined by 2.89%.
Brent also rose by 0.20% to $117.60/b; during July Brent rose by 5.27%.
The chart below shows the changes of WTI and Brent during July, in which they are both normalized to 100=30 of June.
US Petroleum Stocks Rose Last Week
The US Energy Information Administration published yesterday its weekly report on U.S. oil market: the U.S. oil stocks inclined again last week by 4.314 million barrels, or by 0.24% – the highest injection since May 27th. For the week ending on July 8th oil stocks reached 1,796 million barrels – the highest stockpiles since February 4th, 2011 (See here the recent petroleum report).
China’s Growth in GDP
Despite the restrictions taken by PBC to contain the progress of the Chinese inflation and consequently the Chinese economy, China’s GDP grew during the second quarter by 2.2% (Q-2-Q) and 9.6% in annual terms. China is the second largest consumer of oil and the biggest importer of oil.
Ben’s Testimony and Moody’s US Rating
Yesterday two news items may have contributed to the weak US dollar and caused the major commodities prices to rise:
The first news item includesBen Bernanke testified yesterday before the US senate. He referred to the future steps that the Fed might consider including:
“… given the range of uncertainties about the strength of the recovery and prospects for inflation over the medium term, the Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate..… to initiate more securities purchases or to increase the average maturity of our holdings. “
This keeps the door open for an additional action by the Federal Reserve including stimulus plans (quantitative easing 3).
The second items refer to Moody’s as it voiced its concerns over the current political situation in the U.S. over raising the debt ceiling by the beginning of August. The US may loose its AAA rating raking: if the U.S. debt limit won’t be revised; this might lead to a default of the US Treasury debt obligations.
Oil Price Outlook and Analysis:
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):
13.30 – U.S. producer price index news
13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims
15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage
Oil prices Monthly outlook –July 2011
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG
Similar Posts:
- Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 06.13.2011
- Commodity Weekly: A strong comeback for commodities
- Asian Focus Video: RBA turnaround; Where are Asian rates headed?
- Market Preview – 08 July 2011
- Market Update Oct 14, Overnight Market Analysis
